Joseph Odok PhD Esq
The outcome of the 2026 Osun governorship election offers Cross River State a political lesson that should not be ignored before 2027: political power is strongest when it is rooted in the people, not merely in federal connections, elite alliances, political godfathers or the presumed power of incumbency.
The Independent National Electoral Commission declared Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party winner with 511,067 votes, defeating APC candidate Bola Oyebamiji, who polled 444,815 votes. Adeleke won 19 of Osun’s 30 local government areas.
The significance of the result goes beyond Adeleke and Oyebamiji. It challenges the assumption that political influence in Abuja automatically translates into electoral control at the grassroots. Political networks can be powerful, but voters retain the final instrument: the ballot.
The Limits of Political Mythology
Osun should also encourage Nigerians to reassess the political mythology surrounding powerful national figures such as Nyesom Ezenwo Wike and Sen Godswill Akpabio. This is not an argument that either man is politically weak. Far from it. Wike remains a formidable political actor in Rivers and an important power broker at the federal level. His allies have demonstrated considerable organisational strength in Rivers politics, while he himself has repeatedly asserted the strength of his political structure. But Wike’s influence should be rated as formidable rather than absolute. Wike is not sure of Rivers votes in a credible election so he can’t claim to be influential in CRS. The continuing contest between his political camp and other forces in Rivers demonstrates that even a powerful political network must still negotiate with voters, local structures, competing elites and changing public sentiment. Indeed, recent reporting identifies multiple competing blocs in Rivers politics, including forces associated with Wike, Governor Siminalayi Fubara and other established political actors.
The same distinction applies to Akpabio. His position as Senate President gives him considerable national influence, while his political relevance in Akwa Ibom remains substantial. But national office is not synonymous with automatic popular control of a state. Akpabio like Wike is not sure of Akwa Ibom votes as His influence in CRS is not absolute. His political weight should therefore be understood as significant, not unlimited. Akpabio’s own political environment in Akwa Ibom continues to involve negotiations, alliances and local calculations.
And there is an important geographical correction: Akpabio is an Akwa Ibom political figure, not a Cross Rivers political figure. The broader lesson, however, applies to both men and to every national political heavyweight.
What Osun demonstrates is that federal might has limits when voters are determined to vote and sufficiently organised to defend their votes. Money, endorsements, security visibility, political machinery and access to federal power may influence an election, but they cannot permanently substitute for citizens’ political agency.
That is precisely why Cross River should begin thinking about 2027 differently. Cross River Must Choose for Itself Cross River politics should be homegrown. National alliances are not inherently bad. Every state needs relationships with Abuja to attract investment, federal projects, appointments and political influence. But Cross River should never surrender the determination of its political future to outsiders or national political networks.
The state should not become a political laboratory where national actors decide who should lead while Cross Riverians are expected merely to ratify the decision. The central question in 2027 should therefore not be: Who has the strongest connection to Abuja? It should be: Who has earned the confidence of Cross River voters? That distinction is fundamental.
Governor Bassey Otu and the APC establishment should study Osun without defensiveness. The lesson is not that the government should panic, abandon its achievements or assume that opposition forces will automatically benefit from public dissatisfaction. Rather, the lesson is that political legitimacy must continuously be renewed through performance, inclusion and responsiveness. Performance Must Become the Political Currency
Cross River’s 2027 choice should be based substantially on performance. Citizens should be asking simple questions. Are roads improving? Are hospitals functioning better? Are public schools receiving meaningful attention? Are young people finding opportunities? Are farmers receiving productive support? Are communities seeing government beyond political ceremonies? Is government distributed fairly across the three senatorial districts?
These questions matter because political rhetoric becomes less persuasive when citizens are struggling with food prices, transportation costs, school fees, healthcare expenses and unemployment. A government cannot govern effectively through statistics alone. People experience government through their daily lives.
This is where practical intervention becomes crucial: functional roads, stronger healthcare, better public education, agricultural support, youth employment, scholarships and targeted social protection. Palliatives may relieve immediate hardship, but they should complement (not substitute for) structural economic improvement.
Inclusion Must Go Beyond Geography. Cross River must also resist the temptation to define political inclusion simply as geographical rotation. The argument that “power must return to the South” or to any particular senatorial district becomes inadequate if political inclusion remains narrow. Every senatorial district, local government, community, professional group, youth constituency and vulnerable population should see evidence that government belongs to them.
The APC, particularly, should understand that inclusion begins within the political party itself.
Aggrieved members, founding members, grassroots organisers and those who worked for the party before it became the governing party cannot be treated as disposable. Political parties that alienate their own members create future opponents from their own ranks.
A Homegrown Political Future
Cross River should welcome relationships with Wike, Akpabio, Abuja and every other national political actor, but relationships must serve Cross River, not replace Cross River’s political judgment. The state does not need to sell its political future to “stranger elements” imported from outside. National politicians can provide access and influence, but they should not become substitutes for indigenous political organisation.
The strongest candidate for Cross River in 2027 should therefore be the person who can demonstrate three things: performance, inclusion and popular legitimacy.
The Osun election is a reminder that voters are not permanently owned by political structures. They can listen to politicians, consider endorsements and evaluate promises, and then make their own decisions.
When voters are sufficiently determined to vote and sufficiently vigilant to defend their votes, even the most intimidating display of political machinery has limits. That is the lesson Cross River must take seriously.
Governor Sen Bassey Edet Otu still has time to strengthen his political legitimacy. The pathway is not complicated: broaden inclusion, reconcile genuine grievances within the APC, reduce unnecessary political alienation, demonstrate fairness across the three senatorial districts and make government interventions visible in the everyday lives of citizens.
If the APC wants to retain Cross River in 2027, it should not merely tell voters who is powerful in Abuja. It should show them what government has done in Cross River. And if the opposition wants to replace the APC, it must offer more than anger, denunciation and anti-government rhetoric. It must present credible people, a convincing programme and a better future.
Cross River’s 2027 election should ultimately be a Cross River decision. Not Wike’s decision. Not Akpabio’s decision. Not a Tinubu decision. not Atiku decision. Not Obi’s decision. Not Abuja’s decision. Not the decision of political godfathers. It should be the decision of Cross River voters. That is the real meaning of homegrown politics: federal connections may open doors, but only the people can open the ballot box.
*Dr. Joseph Odok is a University lecturer.
